This is well beyond the threshold of one to 1.5 degrees Celsius, agreed by the international community under the 2015 Paris Agreement.

The main UN remarks came after the United Nations Climate Agency (UNFCCC) released an update on National Climate Action Plans (formally known as Level Determined Contributions). national or NDC) submitted by the 191 countries that have signed the agreement.

The report states that while there is a clear trend of reducing greenhouse gas emissions over time, nations urgently need to redouble their climate efforts if they want to avoid disastrous global warming in the future.

Not enough

The document includes updates to the NDCs of 113 countries that account for around 49% of global emissions, including countries in the European Union and the United States.

Overall, these countries expect their greenhouse gas emissions to decrease by 12% in 2030 compared to 2010. “It is an important step”, underlines the report, but insufficient, as Mr. Guterres pointed out at the Big Economies Energy and Climate Forum on Friday, hosted by United States President Joe Biden

“We need a 45% reduction in emissions by 2030, to achieve carbon neutrality by the middle of the century… It is clear that everyone must assume their responsibilities,” he stressed.

70 countries have indicated their adherence to carbon neutrality targets by mid-century. If that materializes, it could lead to even greater emission reductions, of around 26% by 2030, compared to 2010, the report says.

Red code

However, the national plans remaining as they are currently for the 191 countries, average global emissions in 2030 compared to 2010, instead of decreasing, will increase by around 16%.

According to the latest IPCC findings, this would mean that unless climate action is taken immediately, it could lead to a temperature rise of around 2.7 ° C by the end of this century.

“The recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was a code red for humanity. But he also made it clear that it was not too late to meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5-degree target. We have the tools to achieve this goal. But we’re quickly running out of time“, Underlined the head of the UNO.

The challenge

The Secretary General highlighted a particular challenge: the energy still obtained from coal. “If all the planned coal plants become operational, we won’t just be clearly above 1.5 degrees, we will be well above 2 degrees. The Parisian targets would go up in smoke ”.

Mr. Guterres called for the creation of “solidarity coalitions” between countries that still rely heavily on coal and countries that have the financial and technical resources to support transitions to cleaner energy sources.

Without promises and financial commitments from industrialized countries to achieve this, “there is a high risk of failure of COP26 ”, continued Mr. Guterres, referring to the crucial UN climate summit in Glasgow in six weeks.

“The G20 countries represent 80% of global emissions. Their leadership is needed more than ever. The decisions they take now will determine whether the promise made in Paris is kept or broken, ”he warned.

We still have time

Patricia Espinosa, Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change, told a press conference that countries can submit or update their national plans “at any time”, including in the run-up to COP26.

The agency pointed out some good news. New or updated plans included in the report show a marked improvement in the quality of the information presented, both for mitigation and adaptation, and tend to be aligned with broader long-term development goals and emissions, achieving carbon neutrality, national legislative / regulatory / planning processes and other international frameworks such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

The UN chief has made it clear that by COP26, all nations should submit more ambition plans that help put the world on a 1.5 degree path.

“We also need developed countries to finally honor the $ 100 billion commitment pledged over a decade ago to developing countries. The Climate Finance report released today by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) shows that this target has also not been met ”.

A large number of national climate plans from developing countries, which define objectives and actions to reduce emissions, contain contingent liabilities which can only be implemented with access to improved financial resources and other forms of support.

Stop ignoring science

For Mr. Guterres, the fight against climate change will only be successful if everyone comes together to promote more ambition, more cooperation and more credibility.

“Don’t ignore science anymore. No longer ignore requests from people everywhere. It is time for the leaders to stand up and deliver, or the people of all countries will pay a tragic price ”.